How to restore Bayern Munich to its former glory.
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It seems that at some point every season one questions Bayern Munich’s supposed intent on winning the UEFA Champions League once again. The Bavarian giants have failed to go past the semi-finals in the past five seasons, which also happens to be since they last won the competition. This makes one wonder whether they have simply settled for their continued dominance of Germany. However, this season that has changed. For the first time since Jürgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund side won back to back Bundesliga titles, the club finds itself in a position where they could be considered out of the title race. With the recently appointed Nico Kovac leading the team to current 5th place in the Bundesliga, nine points adrift of Dortmund, serious questions need to be asked both of the manager and his players, but also of the direction the club’s board want to take the club.
Following Jupp Heynckes decision not to manage the club past the 2017/18 season and retire from managing permanently, Bayern Munich announced rather surprisingly, that Nico Kovac would be the next appointment to take the role. Having led Eintracht Frankfurt to European competition as well as the club’s first trophy since 1988, it still seemed a premature move for the former Croatian international. Although, it is possible his stint with the team in his playing career may have helped his cause.
In Kovac’s debut campaign in Bavaria, the team currently sit in 5th in the Bundesliga, nine points adrift of league leaders Borussia Dortmund. The only positive, so far, is that the club has guaranteed a place in the knock-out rounds of the Champions League, even if that is in a group they were expected to finish top of. Due to the poor start to the league season, there are rumours that the Croatian will face the axe very soon if results do not begin to improve, and that is where I come in.
Below will entail my suggestions of how the club can improve, solely in a recruitment sense. This will include both manager and players, as there is definitely some much-needed work if Bayern wants to challenge for Europe’s most prestigious trophy once again.
Manager
If reports are to be believed, then Nico Kovac will be departing Bayern Munich sooner than later. With this, the club must decide upon a suitable candidate to take over the club and bring European glory back to Bavaria. Previous appointments have been rather short-sighted; a manager who can rebuild a squad is required. The squad has seen next to no change for years, with players from the 2014 World Cup still mainstays in the club’s starting XI.
A manager who has proved that he can work with younger players whilst maintaining high levels of playing whilst a team is being rebuilt is Leonardo Jardim. Well known for his time at Monaco, where he and his team produced the underdog story of the year by winning the Ligue 1 title and reaching the semi-finals of the Champions League. In the subsequent transfer window, Monaco sold Kylian Mbappe, Bernardo Silva, Benjamin Mendy and Tiemoue Bakayoko. Even after such a loss of talent, the Venezuelan still led the team to a 2nd place finish in the league. He was, rather shortsightedly, fired at the start of the 2018/19 season following a poor start to the campaign. This came after he lost Thomas Lemar and Fabinho, with replacements simply not resembling the talented team he once had. Jardim is still without a job and is the perfect candidate to lead the project at Bayern Munich, as a large overhaul will be needed and young players brought in. The difference for him this time is that he will have more suitable transfers coming in to fit his favoured 4–4–2 system that worked so well at Monaco, which could also be played as 4–4–1–1 using a more advanced midfielder behind the striker.
The Defence
This season, Bayern Munich have had an uncharacteristically leaky defence, conceding the same number of goals as 14th placed Schalke. According to expected goals they are severely underperforming; the team has conceded nearly 6 goals more than anticipated. This is not surprising given the effect of serious injury on German legend Manuel Neuer in recent years; he has been out injured for over 370 days in the last two seasons. The keeper will also turn 33 years old by the end of the season. As well as this, the club’s starting centre-backs have not been exempt from injury either and are also coming to the end of the peak of their abilities. By the start of next season, Mats Hummels will be 30 and Jerome Boateng 31 years old, and this is clearly showing through the diminishment of their defensive capabilities, and more obviously their pace.
Many have touted youngster Christian Fruchtl as the long-term heir to Neuer’s throne, however, he has seen limited playing time, with Sven Ulreich acting as the second choice. I believe that this season should be Neuer’s last as the club’s starting goalkeeper and he should either be faded out as a rotation option or if this does not appease him, moved on. Neither Fruchtl or Ulreich are at the stage to take over this role. I believe Fruchtl should be loaned out to further his development, possibly to the Eredivisie, who are known for their developing of young players. If Neuer was to stay at the club, then Ulreich would be made available for transfer, and if not, then he would stay as the second choice.
The goalkeeping position was the hardest to identify suitable candidates, due to the legendary status of the player who came before.
However, the best option comes in the form of Jan Oblak. Last season the Slovenian made more saves per goal conceded than David De Gea, at a massive 4.56! The Atletico Madrid player also kept more clean sheets in fewer appearances in the league than his Spanish counterpart, conceding just 0.53 goals per game. He is widely considered one of the best goalkeepers in the world, and he is still only 25 years old.
If reports are to be believed, the shot-stopper is unhappy with his current contract situation, citing unrepresentative wages of his ability and the fact Atletico have yet to open negotiations with him. With a rumoured release fee of €100 million, this would show immense value in the current market, especially with the fees paid for keepers such as Alisson and Arrizabalaga. Neither player was as proven at the top level as Oblak is now, so to sign him for a similar figure would seem like great business.
Moving on to the centre-back position, Bayern seemed open to selling Jerome Boateng in the summer, with the player rejecting a move to Manchester United and reportedly failing to agree on personal terms with PSG. The German’s prime is clearly behind him now and should be moved on before his market price begins to drop further. Transfer Markt currently value the defender at €40 million, which would be a slightly higher fee to receive than first expected. As for Mats Hummels, while time is having an adverse effect on him as well, he demonstrates a greater defensive ability and stronger leadership than his current centre-back partner.
To replace the ageing Boateng, I have identified Milan Skriniar as the best option. The 23-year-old is the clear first choice central defender at Inter Milan; he was played every available minute of the season for the club. In the Champions League, the Slovenian has averaged 4 tackles per game, as well as 4.4 clearances! So far facing the attacking prowess of both Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur, the young centre-back has coped incredibly well and has demonstrated a great level of maturity that would hugely benefit the Bayern back line, which has seen itself directionless at times this season. Skriniar was subject of interest from Manchester United with the club making a bid of £57 million, which was ultimately rejected. A bid in the region of the world-record £75 million fee Liverpool paid for Virgil van Dijk would surely convince Inter to let their player go, which I believe is a necessary price to pay for a defender of such quality.
Bayern Munich is well-known for its strength in the full-back positions, with David Alaba and in particular, Joshua Kimmich, being considered some of the best in their roles in the world. However, the team lacks any cover at left-back and Rafinha is simply an inadequate back up to Kimmich.
The club failed to replace Juan Bernat when he left for PSG in the summer, who was Alaba’s understudy on the left side of the defence. The man to fill this gape is not a youngster but is still demonstrating great potential at Ajax. 26-year-old Nicolas Tagliafico is currently outperforming the former Bayern full-back in terms of both tackles and interceptions, as well as key passes per game. Both players have scored two goals this season, but the Argentine has also laid on three assists for his teammates this campaign. Valued at just €16 million, the Ajax man could be persuaded to join the Bavarians as a rotation option with the promise of domestic trophies, and hopefully, a Champions League winners medal, which is not likely to arrive in Amsterdam anytime soon. With the player also in the latter half of his twenties now, this may be the best time for him to move to a major European side.
In terms of the right-back options, Rafinha is now 33 years old and not capable of filling in for one of Europe’s best in Joshua Kimmich. Another player from the Eredivisie who would be a suitable option for the German side is Denzel Dumfries of PSV. With Kimmich demonstrating impeccable ability in moving the ball forward with an extremely high pass succession rate, a player who can hold a more defensive role may be what’s needed. In games when the midfield is being overrun, as seen in the second half of the 3–2 loss to Dortmund, Kimmich could be pushed into the centre of the park to add more balance to the team, with Dumfries taking his place in the back four. The Dutch fullback makes a huge four combined tackles and interceptions a game in all competitions, whilst also making 3.6 clearances. With the would-be outgoing Rafinha valued at €3.5 million, bringing in the €6 million-rated Dutchman as a like-for-like replacement seems like a no-brainer given the contribution he would make to the team.
The Midfield
The German superclub must also look to their midfield for further required improvements. This is not to say the individuals in these roles are simply not talented, as this is not the case. Players such as Thiago Alcantara and Corentin Tolisso are remarkable in their positions but are currently ruled out injured, with the former having recurring injuries that regularly keep him out of the squad.
If it were up to me, I would keep Thiago but rest him thoroughly for big games to decrease the risk of injury. Coming in to replace him in these periods of rest would be Allan, the Napoli midfielder. Both players occupy a similar role within their teams, however, the Brazilian is more defensively minded than his Spanish counterpart. Where the Bayern player makes 3.9 combined tackles and interceptions, Allan makes 5.4! This would certainly allow for another midfielder to push forward and make up the attacking output expected from Thiago, while Allan can be trusted to guard the back four. The Napoli player also boasts very similar stats to Thiago in terms of both key passes per match and pass completion. Selling former wonder kid Renato Sanches for a fee close to his €20 million valuation would certainly help fund a bid in the region of €50 million for the Brazilian international.
In regards to an attacking midfielder, the simplest and most logical option would be to purchase James Rodriguez permanently with the €40 million option the club has. Whilst the Colombian has fallen out with current manager Nico Kovac, under a more coach who allows his forward players more freedom, I believe he would flourish. It would cost significantly more to purchase a player of similar calibre, such as Nabil Fekir, but with less Champions League experience at a top European side. The only player I would acquire in this role would be German youngster Kai Havertz, who currently has the same number of goal contributions, with six scored and five assisted, as the aforementioned Fekir. Whether this move would be financially possible is another matter, as while the 19-year-old is valued at around €55 million, I think Bayer Leverkusen would want much more to take away one of their brightest talents.
The Forwards
It has been clear to see for some time now that Bayern Munich need to replace their wingers. With Franck Ribery turning 36 and Arjen Robben turning 35 years old by the end of the season, it is rather shocking that the two are still the first choice wingers in Bavaria. Ribery simply does not have the ability to play at such a high level anymore, and both wingers have lost a lot of pace in recent years. The only saving grace for either is that Robben seems to have managed his ageing well by continuing to demonstrate great technical ability on the ball, with his cut in on his left foot still his trademark move. Regardless of this, the club must look to replace both wingers as soon as possible. I would see Ribery sold if he chose not to retire and, as with Neuer, Robben would slowly become more of a rotation option within the squad or be sold if he was not content with this role. Both players have flourished as inverted wingers, allowing more opportunities to shoot rather than running the ball to the byline and crossing it in; a tactic popularised in Pep Guardiola’s time at the club. Replacing these iconic wingers is a great task but there are some exemplary candidates in Europe who look to have the potential to do just that and add another string to Bayern’s offensive bow.
The player that I believe would seamlessly replace the legendary French winger is Memphis Depay, currently playing at Lyon. The Dutchman can play as an out and out forward as well as an inverted left winger, and demonstrates impressive offensive numbers. Scoring six and assisting nine in his 15 club appearances so far this season makes Depay one of Europe’s best attackers at current, and this is not just a hot run of form; since leaving Manchester United, the winger has demonstrated the pure talent that he displayed in the Netherlands by recording 29 goals and 26 assists in just 66 league appearances for Lyon. Turning 25 years old this season, Depay is a hugely creative player who also has the maturity gained from playing in three top leagues. Currently one of the best forwards in Europe and valued at just €45 million, the acquisition of the Dutchman would represent great value, even if a slightly higher transfer fee is required, in the current market and would solve the club’s issues on the left-wing.
Kingsley Coman, now 22 years old, has so far failed to act upon the great promise he once showed, and with the arrival of hot-prospect Alphonso Davies who has contributed to 18 goals in 31 MLS appearances, it would probably be best for the player’s career if he was moved on. The player is valued higher than Depay, according to Transfer Markt, at €50 million. I have reservations on whether any potential suitors would pay that sort of fee, however.
To match a left-winger who can both score and create goals like Depay, I decided to look for an extremely similar player; a capable finisher with great vision and technical ability. Automatically one thinks of players such as Messi, Dembele, Neymar, etc. However, a player came to mind who has also seen himself fall out of favour at his own club; Son Heung-Min. The South Korean attacker has played just over 400 minutes of Premier League for Tottenham Hotspur this season. The versatile forward can play anywhere along the front line as he is extremely comfortable on the ball with both feet and also has incredible pace that helps his team to cut through opponents on the counter-attack. The forward has previous experience playing in the Bundesliga as well, representing both Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg. He is also a great example of an attacker who “defends from the front”, completing over 1.5 tackles and interceptions per game.
Spurs chairman Daniel Levy is well-known for his hard style of negotiating, however, the club may now be in a position where they have to sell one of their top players as their new stadium plans continue to run over budget. Selling Son would seem a much-preferred move by both the club and its fans, rather than seeing the likes of Harry Kane, Dele Alli or Christian Eriksen depart the North London-based club. A bid around €65 million would seem reasonable for the player, given both his talent and his clubs financial position.
Finally, we come to the striker position. Bayern currently has Sandro Wagner, Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski who can fill the role. Wagner has currently been involved in no league goals this season, and his role as a backup can easily be filled by Serge Gnabry, who can play as both a striker and a winger.
As for the other two forwards, I do not believe either need moving on at this point. Muller is a fan favourite, can play in a range of positions and was involved in over 20 league goals last campaign. Lewandowski, whilst currently underperforming in terms of expected goals, has shown no real sign of his scoring rate slowing down. The addition of more talent on the wings will also help both forward’s goal contributions rise too.
The Result
The outlined squad overhaul would cost around €250 million after outgoing player fees are taken into account. As crazy a figure as that sounds, the Bavarian side has failed to make the critical changes to the squad needed over the last few years, and are now, therefore, playing catch up with their European counterparts.
The players brought in would also allow for the rest of more talented players who simply cannot cope with such an intense season, playing in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League. This was a tactic used by Zinedine Zidane with Cristiano Ronaldo to great effect; the forward was rested for a surprising number of league games so that he would be in the best shape to take on Europe’s best teams in the latter stages of the Champions League.
Following the proposed transfers, the starting line-up for the club could look like this, in a 4–4–1–1 formation.
Of course, Leonardo Jardim could lay the team out slightly differently; he could stick his favoured 4–4–2 formation, or in fact play a midfield three including Allan for more defensive solidity.
I believe that Bayern Munich would truly become a top team in the Champions League again under the management of Leonardo Jardim, especially with players of such quality joining the club under his guidance. Whether the club moves forward with such progressive thoughts remains to be seen.
How long do you think Niko Kovac will last now?
And when will Bayern finally lift the Champions League again?
If you have read this far, thank you!
This is my first piece of writing on Medium and hopefully the first of many. I spent a lot of time trying to identify transfer options that aren’t as discussed in the mainstream media, without using players that were too obscure for a general follower of football.
Please leave any feedback in terms of both my suggestions for Bayern Munich and the writing itself!
